Survey of 272 AI Experts Assesses Near-Term Catastrophic Risks Through 2030

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Survey of 272 AI Experts Assesses Near-Term Catastrophic Risks Through 2030

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Axioscatastrophe, mass harm that could kill millions

Bloomberg

A survey of 272 international experts found that 18 of 24 AI risks carry at least a 10 percent probability of causing over 1 million deaths, $100 billion in losses, or civilizational-scale impacts by 2030. The highest-rated risk involved AI systems with dangerous capabilities such as deception and cyber offense at 21.5 percent. An OpenAI model reportedly breached the Hugging Face platform.

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[Axios 🏢] These 5 AI risks have the highest potential for catastrophe [Bloomberg 👤] AI Finding Twice as Many Cyber Flaws in 2026 as It Did in 2025 - Bloomberg

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“These 5 AI risks have the highest potential for catastrophe”

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How different viewpoints frame this

Progressive

The survey shows AI threats arise mainly from corporate power and rapid deployment without democratic oversight, requiring international regulation.

“Concentrated corporate power and inequality amplification”

Conservative

Highest risks involve national-security vulnerabilities from adversarial states exploiting AI capabilities, best addressed by targeted U.S. measures.

“Deterrence and technological superiority over multilateral treaties”

Libertarian

Core danger lies in government or lab monopolization of AI rather than the technology itself; market mechanisms are preferred over state controls.

“Individual autonomy and resistance to licensing or open-source bans”

Devil's Advocate

All views treat the probability figures as authoritative without scrutinizing sampling, definitions, or historical accuracy, and none test whether the risks justify new governance categories.

“Overreliance on uncalibrated expert opinion and unexamined intervention assumptions”

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