NOAA's seasonal outlook projects an 55% chance of below-average activity in the Atlantic for 2026, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. This aligns with averages from 18 other private and academic forecasts and historical patterns seen during strong El Niño events such as 2015. The outlook reflects natural climate variability rather than long-term trends.