Framing Analysis
The International Energy Agency on August 12 reduced its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels per day. Global oil supplies in July reached 101.5 million barrels per day, 6.3 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels, while Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel and U.S. crude inventories fell to four-decade lows. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February preceded the March closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of global supplies.