Bank of America analysts updated their year-end yen forecast to ¥149 per dollar from a prior ¥152, citing the first U.S.-Japan currency intervention since 1998 that moved the yen from a four-decade low near ¥164 to around ¥155-158. Both governments have signaled willingness to act again if volatility resumes. The revision occurs against a current spot rate near ¥158.
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“Bank of America sees yen jumping 6% by end of 2026”
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Highlights how interventions can counter volatility harming households and wages but notes limits without deeper reforms on debt and demographics.
“State tools versus unchecked market forces and corporate benefits.”
Views bilateral intervention as pragmatic stability measure supporting exporters and curbing inflation, while preferring structural reforms over repeated action.
“Sound money and national interests over abstract floating rates.”
Critiques interventions as bureaucratic overrides of voluntary exchange that distort price signals and expand state monetary control.
“Decentralized markets versus government price engineering.”
All three perspectives overstate intervention impact and forecast significance while under-examining persistent rate differentials, carry trades, and yield-curve control.
“Shared premise that sporadic government action is the decisive variable.”
Ratings by MBFC